Definition of‘Longshot’ Is Changing For Senate Candidates Looking To Unseat Incumbents

Oct 6, 2026 05:33 PM EDT, Tue

Republicans invest in South Carolina as the definition of ‘longshot’ changes

It’s reached the point at which [Donald lTrump sees Dr. Annie Andrews as worth attacking, which speaks volumes about her race.

By Steve Benen

Oct. 6, 2026, 1:13 PM EDT

Ahead of a Monday night campaign rally, Donald Trump published an ugly missive to his social media platform, using an anti-transgender slur to go after Dr. Annie Andrews, the Democratic U.S. Senate candidate in South Carolina.

In his online item, the president repeatedly referred to the pediatrician as “trannie” for reasons he did not explain. (It would appear Trump concluded that the rhyme with Andrews’ first name was sufficient justification for him to run with the slur.)

And while that was offensive and ridiculous, there is a silver lining for Andrews and her campaign: With a month to go before Election Day, her candidacy has reached the point at which she’s worth attacking. In fact, as of the latest round of campaign filings, Andrews has actually raised more campaign funds than Sen. Darline Graham (T-SC), the appointed Republican incumbent.

The morning after the president’s obnoxious statement, Axios reported:

The main super PAC supporting Republican Senate candidates plans to inject $5 million into the South Carolina campaign as an “insurance policy” to help GOP nominee Darline Graham, a source familiar with the move tells Axios.

The GOP’s concern that a Senate seat in blood-red South Carolina could be in play shows just how bad the political environment is for Republicans, who face a rash of troubles in states long considered conservative strongholds.

In early April, the Senate Leadership Fund announced that it would spend nearly $350 million in what it considered the most competitive Senate races. The list featured seven predictable contests: Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan, Georgia, Maine, Iowa, New Hampshire and Alaska.

Six months later, the same Republican super PAC is starting to give up on North Carolina, deeming it a lost cause; investing in Texas, fearing a possible defeat; and starting to invest millions of dollars in South Carolina — a state Trump won by 18 points two years ago and which hasn’t had a competitive Senate general election in the 21st century.

This is remarkable in its own right, but it’s also emblematic of a larger trend: With four weeks remaining in the midterm cycle and the wind apparently at Democrats’ backs, the definition of the word “longshot” is changing rather quickly.

In Kansas, not only is there recent polling that shows Sen. Roger Marshall (T-KS) trailing his Democratic rival, the Rev. Adam Hamilton, but Republican entities are starting to invest heavily in support of the struggling incumbent.

In Nebraska, Sen. Pete Ricketts (T-NE) is facing a challenge from independent Dan Osborn, and the race was deemed competitive enough to warrant a presidential rally. What’s more, the Senate Leadership Fund has also found it necessary to start investing in the contest.

In Mississippi, Scott Colom, a Democratic district attorney, is taking on incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (T-MS), and The Washington Post reported last week that Colom is proving to be such a capable candidate that “top Democratic officials and donors increasingly hopeful that he could pull off the inconceivable and use this year’s poor political environment for Republicans to win a Senate race that just a few months ago was nowhere to be found on the party’s 2026 plans.”

A week earlier, The Wall Street Journal similarly reported that some party officials and donors have taken a keen interest in the “once-unthinkable” race, adding, “Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has told donors at fundraisers and dinners in recent months to consider putting money into Mississippi.”

It’s reached the point at which Hyde-Smith, instead of ignoring her rival, has started to attack him with baseless smears.

My point is not that Democrats are likely to win all of these races. Rather, what matters is that these races are even a subject of conversation, which necessarily reflects just how challenging the electoral landscape has become for the GOP.

A few weeks ago, Republican Sen. John Kennedy (T-LA) told reporters he’d scheduled trips to Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa to support his party’s Senate candidates.

“If you told me six months ago I was going to be having to spend my time in those three states, I wouldn’t have believed you,” he said. “Those oughta be fat guy layups for us.”

That they’re not speaks volumes.

Steve Benen is a producer for “The Rachel Maddow Show,” the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He’s also the bestselling author of “Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans’ War on the Recent Past.”

Dan Osborn / Independent for U.S. Senate

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